Desarrollo local en Isla Grande: un modelo probabilístico para la pobreza

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the actual status of local development in Orika, main human settlement in Isla Grande, which is the biggest of 27 islands located in Rosario islands archipelago in Cartagena, Colombia. Using the rationality of the local development concept with a probabilistic model that determines poverty´s probability and information from the 2007 Population Census and the 2009 Household Survey implemented by Surtigas Foundation, the theoretical assumption is confirmed, in where exclusion and vulnerability of the afro descendant population concerning labor market and income generation are associated to important increases in poverty probability occurrence. O objetivo do presente documento é avaliar o estado atual do desenvolvimento local em Orika, principal assentamento humano localizado em Ilha Grande, a maior das 27 ilhas que compõem o arquipélago das Ilhas do Rosario em Cartagena, Colombia. Usando a racionalidade do conceito de desenvolvimento local, um modelo probabilístico para determinar a probabilidade de pobreza e a informação proveniente do Censo populacional 2007 e o Sondagem de Lares 2009 implementados pela fundação Surtigas, a presunção teórica que a exclusão e a vulnerabilidade da população afro-descendente em quanto ao mercado laboral e a geração de ingresso estão associadas a incrementos importantes na probabilidade de ocorrência da pobreza é confirmada. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the actual status of local development in Orika, main human settlement in Isla Grande, which is the biggest of 27 islands located in Rosario islands archipelago in Cartagena, Colombia. Using the rationality of the local development concept with a probabilistic model that determines poverty´s probability and information from the 2007 Population Census and the 2009 Household Survey implemented by Surtigas Foundation, the theoretical assumption is confirmed, in where exclusion and vulnerability of the afro descendant population concerning labor market and income generation are associated to important increases in poverty probability occurrence.