Scientific activity will tend to increase belief in false claims if too few negative outcomes are published

Figure 7. Scientific activity will tend to increase belief in false claims if too few negative outcomes are published. Expected change in log odds of belief vs. negative publication rate for (A) false and (B) true claims. Lines show false positive rates α=0.05 (yellow),0.10,…,0.25 (red). Other parameter values are false negative rate β=0.2 and positive publication rate ρ_1=1.