Publishing negative outcomes is essential for rejecting false claims

Figure 4. Publishing negative outcomes is essential for rejecting false claims. Probability that a false claim is incorrectly canonized, as a function of the negative publication rate. Throughout, initial belief is q_0 = 0.5, and individual data series show false positive rates α = 0.05 (yellow), 0.10, ..., 0.25 (red). Top row: weak evidentiary standards τ_0 = 0.1 and τ_1 = 0.9. Panel A: false negative rate β = 0.2. Panel B: β = 0.4. Panels C-D: similar to panels A-B, with more demanding evidentiary standards τ_0 = 0.001 and τ_1 = 0.999.