Effective population size and genetic gain expected in a population of Coffea canephora

Abstract This work aimed to study the effective population size and genetic gain in a population of robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre) and verify the possibility of using recurrent selection. The experiment comprised 25 treatments, consisting of 21 C. canephora progenies and four C. arabica (cultivars) grown in Brazil. The experimental design was a 5x5 quadruple balanced lattice, with 24 replications, with one plant per plot. Six harvests were performed in each plant. Statistical analysis was carried out using the mixed model methodology. The analysis showed high additive genetic variability, and the magnitude of the additive components prevailed over that of the dominance components. These facts revealed the plant population liability to undergo recurrent selection, whose expected genetic gains were high. Results suggest that the effective population size and inbreeding degree throughout recurrent selection cycles be monitored. During selective cycles, cloning with weak selection is required due to few progenies.