Modeling Clean Energy Transition Pathways in Developing Countries: The Case of Brazil

This report was produced during the EMP-LAC 24 capacity building event organized bythe Climate Compatible Growth Programme (CCG). Training was provided by instructorsfrom CCG, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, and Universidade Federal Fluminense.The event received funding from CCG, the World Bank Group (WBG), and the 2050Pathways Platform.We would like to thank Fernando A. Plazas Niño, Pedro H. Peters Barbosa, CarlaCannone and the whole team from Climate Compatible Growth for their support in thedevelopment of this work. As a result of the Paris Agreement, Brazil formulated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) regulations, updated in 2023. It stipulates that Brazil must reduce emissions by 48% in 2025 and 53% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels (MMA,2023). In other words, by 2050, everything the country emits must be offset by carbon sequestration sources, such as forest planting, biome restoration, or other technologies. This report examines the challenges of meeting objectives in the face of increasing electricity demand and climate change. Therefore, three scenarios were evaluated using the open-source modelling system OSeMOSYS: Business-As-Usual (BAU), Implementation and Expansion of Offshore Wind Generation (EOL), and Commitment to Net Neutral Emissions by 2050 (NDC). In the BAU scenario, the consequences of maintaining the percentage composition of each energy generation technology in the energy matrix are presented. This is intended to serve as a reference for the formulation of public policies for the energy transition. The NDC scenario examines which technologies can replace polluting power generation, while the EOL scenario examines whether decarbonization can be achieved by 2050 through investment in offshore wind farms. In the third scenario, we aim to investigate the effect of offshore wind generation on the grid. This is due to its identification as a medium-term expansion candidate in the analysis conducted under the 'Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan' (PDE, 2029). Additionally, there are ongoing projects in Brazil's environmental licensing process.