Direction and magnitude of natural selection on body size differs among age classes of seaward migrating Pacific salmon

Due to the mediating role of body size in determining fitness, the ‘bigger is better’ hypothesis still pervades evolutionary ecology despite evidence that natural selection on phenotypic traits varies in time and space. For Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus), most individual studies quantify selection across a narrow range of sizes and ages; therefore, uncertainties remain concerning how selection on size may differ among diverse life-histories. Here, we quantify the direction and magnitude of natural selection on body size among age-classes of multiple marine cohorts of O. nerka (sockeye salmon). Across four cohorts of seaward migrants, we calculated standardized selection differentials by comparing observed size distributions of out-migrating juvenile salmon to back-calculated smolt length from the scales of surviving, returning adults. Results reveal the magnitude of selection on size was very strong (> 90th percentile compared to a database of 3,759 linear selection differentials) and consistent among years. However, the direction of selection on size consistently varied among age-classes. Selection was positive for fish migrating to sea after two years in freshwater (age 2) and in their first year of life (age 0), but negative for fish migrating after 1 year in freshwater (age 1). The absolute magnitude of selection was negatively correlated to mean ocean-entry timing, which may underpin negative selection favoring small age-1 fish, given associations between size and timing of seaward migration. Collectively, these results indicate that ‘bigger is not always better’ in terms of survival and emphasize trade-offs that may exist between fitness components for organisms with similarly diverse migratory life-histories.