Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

In large lake ecosystems, e.g., Lake Michigan, USA, larval fish environmental experiences and recruitment dynamics are directly influenced by climate-driven physical transport processes that advect passive larvae through heterogeneous habitats. Integrating a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models, we simulate the hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout Lake Michigan and evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport. Results demonstrate that prior to summer stratification relatively strong alongshore currents, generated by the nearshore thermal bar, limit offshore transport of nearshore hatched fish larvae. Shift towards greater offshore transport became more frequent with the onset of summer stratification, which occurred earlier during relatively warm historic and future years. Nearshore retention may have important implications for larval fish growth and/or survival.