What Race is Leadership? A Statistical Approach to Evaluating Racial Equity in NFL Coach Hires

This research examines racial bias in NFL coaching hires, using detailed statistical analysis to uncover systemic disparities. It finds that career longevity, often seen as a predictor of coaching success, does not correlate with coaching effectiveness. Instead, players with longer careers may struggle with coaching's strategic demands. The study highlights the role of implicit biases that disadvantage minority candidates and identifies resilience, shown through overcoming adversity like frequent losses or ties, as a key predictor of coaching potential. The Rooney Rule, intended to increase minority representation, has not effectively disrupted entrenched biases. By employing advanced statistical methods, the study reveals a significant underrepresentation of Black coaches and overrepresentation of white coaches. The findings emphasize the need for deeper interventions beyond policy changes, addressing both conscious and unconscious biases. This study contributes to the broader discussion on racial equity, offering insights relevant to other sectors beyond sports.