Epigenetic prediction of response to anti-PD-1 treatment in non-small-cell lung cancer: a multicenter, retrospective analysis

Background: Anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) treatment for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has improved the survival of patients. However, a substantial percentage of patients do not respond to this treatment. We examined the use of DNA methylation profiles to determine the efficacy of anti-PD-1 treatment in patients recruited with current stage IV NSCLC. Methods: In this multicentre study, we recruited adult patients from 15 hospitals in France, Spain, and Italy who had histologically proven stage IV NSCLC and had been exposed to PD-1 blockade during the course of the disease. The study structure comprised a discovery cohort to assess the correlation between epigenetic features and clinical benefit with PD-1 blockade and two validation cohorts to assess the validity of our assumptions. We first established an epigenomic profile based on a microarray DNA methylation signature (EPIMMUNE) in a discovery set of tumour samples from patients treated with nivolumab or pembrolizumab. The EPIMMUNE signature was validated in an independent set of patients. A derived DNA methylation marker was validated by a single-methylation assay in a validation cohort of patients. The main study outcomes were progression-free survival and overall survival. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate progression-free and overall survival, and calculated the differences between the groups with the log-rank test. We constructed a multivariate Cox model to identify the variables independently associated with progression-free and overall survival. Findings: Between June 23, 2014, and May 18, 2017, we obtained samples from 142 patients: 34 in the discovery cohort, 47 in the EPIMMUNE validation cohort, and 61 in the derived methylation marker cohort (the T-cell differentiation factor forkhead box P1 [FOXP1]). The EPIMMUNE signature in patients with stage IV NSCLC treated with anti-PD-1 agents was associated with improved progression-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·010, 95% CI 3·29 × 10 −4–0·0282; p=0·0067) and overall survival (0·080, 0·017–0·373; p=0·0012). The EPIMMUNE-positive signature was not associated with PD-L1 expression, the presence of CD8+ cells, or mutational load. EPIMMUNE-negative tumours were enriched in tumour-associated macrophages and neutrophils, cancer-associated fibroblasts, and senescent endothelial cells. The EPIMMUNE-positive signature was associated with improved progression-free survival in the EPIMMUNE validation cohort (0·330, 0·149–0·727; p=0·