Global Stability Analysis of a Fractional-Order Ebola Epidemic Model with Control Strategies

We proposed a fractional-order derivative model for Ebola virus disease (EVD) to assess the effects of control strategies on the spread of the disease in the population. The proposed model incorporates all relevant biological factors, health education campaigns, prevention measures, and treatment as control strategies. We computed the basic reproduction number R0 and qualitatively used it to assess the existence of the model states. In particular, we noted that two equilibrium points exist, the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points which are both globally stable whenever R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. We performed sensitivity analysis on the key parameters that drive the EVD dynamics to determine their relative importance in EVD transmission and prevalence. Model parameters were estimated using the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Guinea. Further, numerical simulation results are presented using fractional Adam-Bashforth-Moulton scheme to support the analytical findings. From the numerical simulations, we have noted that as \(\alpha\) decreases from unit, the solution profiles of the model attain its stability much faster than at \(\alpha\) = 1. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that the aforementioned control strategies have the potential to reduce the transmission of EVD in the population.