Autocratización a fuego lento: el caso de Nicaragua (2000-2024)

Objective/context: This article dissects the process of democratic regression that has taken place in Nicaragua from 2000 to the present day (2024), drawing primarily on the analytical framework developed by Javier Corrales in his 2022 work, Rising Authoritarianism. Methodology: The quarter-century period is divided into four stages. The first, from 2000 to 2006, during which a liberal democratic regime begins to shift due to spurious political interests; the second, from 2006 to 2011, when the system acquires elements of a hybrid regime and authoritarian elections are introduced; the third, from 2011 to 2019, when the modus operandi—based on co-opting the country’s most influential economic and social actors—abruptly and improvised shifts (following protests) to influence a highly repressive authoritarian system; and a fourth period in which the government deploys a legal framework aimed at curtailing and repressing any form of dissent, hollowing out all state institutions and establishing a closed authoritarian regime. Conclusions: The study concludes that this case represents a paradigmatic example of gradual democratic backsliding, in which state capture and the use of “authoritarian legalism” have been key to maintaining power. Originality: It presents an innovative approach to categorizing and classifying the variations of democratic regression processes by examining the specificities and particularities of the Nicaraguan case. Objetivo/contexto: el artículo disecciona el proceso de desdemocrati- zación que ha sucedido en Nicaragua desde 2000 hasta hoy, 2024, principalmente a partir del marco analítico desarrollado por Javier Corrales en su obra de 2022, Rising Authoritarianism. Metodología: se divide el periodo de este cuarto de siglo en cuatro etapas: uno inicial que va desde 2000 hasta 2006, en el que un régimen de democracia liberal empieza a mutar a partir de intereses políticos espurios; uno pos- terior, que va desde 2006 hasta 2011, en el que el sistema va adquiriendo elementos de régimen híbrido y se implantan elecciones autoritarias; un tercer momento, que va desde 2011 a 2019, en el que el modus operandi basado en la cooptación de los actores económicos y sociales más relevantes del país pasa de manera abrupta e improvisada (a raíz de unas protestas) a influenciar un sistema autoritario altamente represivo; y, un cuarto periodo en el que el Gobierno despliega una legalidad destinada a cerce- nar y reprimir cualquier tipo de disidencia y vam