COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave in Valle de México and México City: A spatial analysis approach in small areas

The first cases of the COVID-19 disease in Mexico came from abroad in February 2020. Communitarian propagation accelerated the infection in the big metropolitan areas of Mexico, such as Valle de México Metropolitan Zone (VMMZ), were located the biggest people concentration in the country. In this study, we evaluate the spatial distribution of the positive cases and deaths in VMMZ at municipality level through a spatial econometric model that include socio demographic and economic variables, besides we explore the active cases in Ciudad de México at neighborhood level. We found significant spatial effects, most notably in positive cases, that could help to explain the stage of the disease, in both levels municipality and neighborhood. The model shed light to observe how the COVID19 hits harder at the municipalities more densely populated and where the urbanization process was deeper, compared with those peripheral, nevertheless, worst living conditions also exhibit a positive relationship, in both positive cases and deaths.