Estudo ecológico de séries temporais sobre a mortalidade por câncer de pele na Região Sul do Brasil

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trend and to adjust a time series model for neoplastic skin diseases, from 1996 to 2012, in southern Brazil. To do so, conduct an ecological time series study using quarterly death data. The ARIMA Model (4,1,0) was the one that had the best fit for the date adopted and validated with date from 2013. It can be seen in this study that there is an increase in the number of deaths from skin cancer over time, How Which can be approved by the given model, and which can be helpful in planning public policies for intervention and / or prevention of skin cancer among the population of Southern Brazil.