Impact of early leadership on performance in volleyball sets

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of different contextual variables on winning volleyball sets. The variables were selected based on their significance as determined by expert coaches. The sample consisted of 1,849 sets, representing all matches played in both categories during the 2022 and 2023 Volleyball Nations League and the 2021 Olympic Games. To analyse the variables, multivariate logistic regressions and Markov chains were applied. The results showed that opponent level explained 21.6% of the variability found; being especially relevant when playing against opponents separated by two competitive levels. Winning the previous set increased the chances of winning the next set by 7.83%. Leading the score at the end of both set periods enhanced the likelihood of winning the set, reaching 87.12% when finishing ahead in both periods. Moreover, at the end of the second period, each additional point increased the likelihood of winning the set by 1.54%. These results signify an advancement in comprehending the impact of contextual variables on winning high-level volleyball sets.