Risk Economic Viability Focusing on Energy Efficiency in Three Genotypes of Elephant Grass in the Municipality of Alegre, Brazil

The use, on a large scale, of fossil fuels and their derivatives has devastating long-term consequences for mankind. Therefore is an urgent need to seek new alternatives for sustainable energy production. This fact is one of the great challenges to be faced by researchers worldwide. Within this context, the elephant grass has been standing out successfully in the production of biomass for energy purposes. The purpose in this study was to analyze the economic viability of biomass production of three genotypes of elephant grass for energy purposes and to identify the risk by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. The economic indicators were obtained by calculating the Net Present Value (NPV), the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the Profitability Index (PI). To determine the degree of uncertainty, analysis of sensitivity was applied. Results indicated viability for all genotypes, especially the Guaçú/I.Z.2, with IRR of 17.79%. Variation in sale price of grass generates a greater impact on profitability, followed by the labor and fertilization costs. The risk of failure was relatively low, with the exception of Capim Cana D'África, 38.16%. Among the three genotypes studied, the G1 genotype (Guaçú/I.Z.2) stood out as the one with the best economic viability.