Trend Analysis of Maritime Security Threats and its Implications on Nigerian Seaborne Trade

The study analysed the effects of maritime security threats on value of seaborne trade in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were among other things: to estimate the trend of maritime security threats to which shipping trade is exposed to in Nigerian waters, to determine coefficient of elasticity of the value of non-oil shipping trade to variations in trends of maritime security threats in Nigeria and to determine the elasticity of port revenue to changes in trend of maritime security risks in Nigeria.. The study used quantitative research design method. Time series secondary data covering a period of 22 years from 1999 to 2020 on pirate attacks against ships trading in Nigeria, piracy related deaths and injuries affecting maritime workers in Nigeria. The multiple regression analysis method, Log-Log constant elasticity model and paired sample t-test were used to analyse the data obtained. It was found that for each 1% increase pirate attacks against ships trading in Nigerian waters leads to a 0.636% increase in value of Nigerian non-oil shipping trade over the 22 years period covered in the study. The result also indicates that for each 1% increase in piracy related deaths in Nigerian maritime industry, the value of Nigeria non-oil shipping trade increases by 0.043% while a 1% increase in piracy related injury increases by 0.023%. The relationship between the value of Nigeria’s non-oil shipping trade and variations in the trend of maritime security risks is not significant. The model showing the elastic relationship depicting the influence of variations in maritime security threats on the value of non-oil shipping trade in Nigerian maritime industry is: LOGSEATRADE = 9.882+0.636LOGPIRATE + 0.043LOGPIRDEATH + 0.023LOGINJUR +e. The model showing the elastic relationship depicting the influence of variations in maritime security risks on the value of port revenue in Nigerian maritime industry is: LOGPOREV = 5.536 + 0.101LOGPIRATE + 0.108LOGPIRDEATH + 0.016LOGINJUR +e. It was recommended among other things that in order to achieve increased growth in the value of Nigeria’s non-oil shipping trade, the security challenges bedevilling the Nigerian waters must be addressed. This is because maritime security threats are responsible for about 66% variation in the value of Nigeria’s non-oil shipping trade over the period.