Psychological predictors of avoidance behaviors around going out or contacting others after the termination of the COVID-19 state of emergency

Cross-sectional research has indicated that the psychological variables of the protective motive theory and normative focus theory are related to avoidance behaviors around going out or contacting others during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there has been no longitudinal research investigating whether these psychological variables predict similar behaviors. The aim of this longitudinal study was to examine whether these psychological variables predicted such behaviors immediately after the termination of the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency. A total of 781 participants completed a web-based survey immediately before and after the termination of the state of emergency in Tokyo. A cross-lagged effects model was used to analyze psychological predictors. The results indicated that the perceived self-efficacy of avoidance behaviors (β = .099), injunctive norms (β = .135), and descriptive norms (β = －.061) immediately before the state of emergency termination predicted avoidance behaviors around going out or contacting others immediately after the termination. These results suggested causal relationships between perceived self-efficacy, descriptive norms, and injunctive norms and avoidance behaviors around going out or contacting others.