Risk-averse approach for assessment of investment in a run-of-the-river power plants while considering reduced water availability

Investment in the facility for harnessing a stream of water is usually characterized by long payback period. Hence investment choice not only needs to be optimal, but it also needs to be robust enough to cope with uncertainties which occur during payback period. In this research, a family of flow duration curves is created to model stochastic nature of water availability. The risk-constrained approach for assessment of investments in cascaded hydropower plants is proposed in a form of a mixed-integer linear programming. Proposed approach will manage a risk of large financial losses induced by these uncertainties. The project of run-ofriver power plants on the Sava river stretch (Croatia) from border with Slovenia to the city of Sisak is analyzed.