Decoupling the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon Sink

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) plays a vital role in quantifying the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the effects of dominant driving forces and their respective contribution rates on NEP can aid in the effective management of terrestrial carbon sinks, especially in rapidly urbanizing coastal areas where climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) occur frequently. Combining MODIS NPP products and meteorological data from 2000 to 2020, this paper established a Modis NPP-Soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) model to estimate the magnitude of NEP in China’s coastal zone (CCZ). Hotspot analysis, variation trend, partial correlation, and residual analysis were applied to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of NEP and the contributions of CC and HA to the dynamics of NEP. We also explored the changes in NEP in different land use types. It was found that there is a clear north–south difference in the spatial pattern of NEP in CCZ, with Zhejiang Province serving as the main watershed for this difference. In addition, NEP in most regions showed an improvement trend, especially in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and Shandong Province, but the pixel values of NEP here were generally not as high as that in most southern provinces. According to the types of driving forces, the improvement of NEP in these regions primarily results from the synergistic effects of CC and HA. NEP changes in provinces south of Zhejiang are mainly dominated by single-factor-driven degradation. The area where HA contributes to the increase in NEP is much larger than that of CC. From the perspective of land use types, forests and farmland are the dominant contributors to the magnitude of NEP in CCZ.