The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulativ...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of clinical medicine 2020-01, Vol.9 (2), p.330, Article 330
Hauptverfasser: Nishiura, Hiroshi, Jung, Sung-mok, Linton, Natalie M., Kinoshita, Ryo, Yang, Yichi, Hayashi, Katsuma, Kobayashi, Tetsuro, Yuan, Baoyin, Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Clinical medicine
Confidence intervals
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Exports
General & Internal Medicine
Hospitalization
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Maximum likelihood method
Medicine, General & Internal
Pneumonia
R&D
Research & development
Science & Technology
Seafood
Surveillance
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Zusammenfassung:A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
ISSN:2077-0383
2077-0383
DOI:10.3390/jcm9020330