Extreme Learning Machine and Multilayer Perceptron Methods for Predicting COVID-19

The number of positive COVID-19 cases in Semarang City has increased over the last year. In anticipating and preparing proper health facilities, the government must predict the number of cases. This research applies Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to indicate the number of positive COVID-19 cases. These newly developed methods are part of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The type of data used in the study is secondary data. Covid-19 patient data was taken from the Semarang City Health Office. The data on the number of positive Covid-19 cases used is data from April 9, 2020 to December 15, 2022. The prediction results of the ELM and MLP methods were then compared to determine which method was more effective in predicting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. The results of the study showed that both methods had an error of less than 10%, meaning that both methods were feasible for predicting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. However, based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values, the MLP method had a smaller error rate than the ELM method. In predicting the number of COVID-19 positive cases, ELM has 93.436331% accuracy, and MLP has 97.055838% accuracy. The best method for predicting the number of COVID-19 positive cases in Semarang City is Multilayer Perceptron (MLP).