ASSESSMENT OF FIRE RISK IN THE VALE DO PARAÍBA REGION, SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RAINFOREST, BRAZIL

In recent times, the area burned by wildfires in the Atlantic Rainforest, a biodiversity hotspot, has increased and its occurrence may threaten this biome. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three fire risk indices for a historical time series in Vale do Paraíba Paulista, southeast Atlantic Rainforest, Brazil. Daily meteorological data from automatic weather stations and hotspots records from INPE fire monitoring program were used to validate the formulas. Three fire risk indices were calculated: Angstron, Monte Alegre Formula (MAF) and Telecyn. We expected that we would find an increase in fire risk in recent years in the region, which we found for some municipalities, and that burning risk would be higher in dry months, which we showed. Moreover, we argued that protected areas surrounding higher fire risk sites are being threatened, especially near São Luiz do Paraitinga and Taubaté. Lastly, considering the higher probability in detecting fire risk in higher classes, Angstron was the most adequate for Campos do Jordão and MAF for Sao Luiz do Paraitinga, Taubaté and Cachoeira Paulista.