Numerical Study of Interaction between the Climate System Components and Their Role in Arctic Amplification of Climate Change

With the help of numerical modeling and reanalysis data, interactions between the components of the climate system in the Arctic under the conditions of climate warming have been studied. When analyzing the data and results of numerical experiments, the method of expanding fields of state characteristics in terms of empirical orthogonal functions was used. Trends in the atmospheric impact on the ocean–ice system during the warming period and their relationship with trends in future warming projections under the most severe RCP 8.5 scenario in the CMIP-5 project are identified. In addition, numerical modeling revealed a 44-year periodicity in the interaction between the Arctic Ocean circulation and the heat content of the Atlantic water layer: this can be associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.