Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a radioecological model / Sensitivitäts- und Unsicherheitsanalyse eines radioökologischen Modells

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were conducted for a radioecological model which was developed and applied for severe accident scenario for Akkuyu NPP in Turkey. Uncertainty was investigated in the doses and activity concentrations. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to find out most influencing parameters on the doses. 96 parameters, related with foodstuffs, feedstuffs and grass, inhalation rate and reduction factor for external irradiation, and transfer of Cs, Cs and I isotopes, were studied by probabilistic methods. Latin Hypercube Sampling method was used to generate random parameters. In sensitivity analysis Spearman rank coefficients between the parameters and doses were calculated. The uncertainty analysis proves that the lifetime doses are in the range of 4.8 - 32 mSv and short-term doses are in the range of 1.1 - 2.8 mSv when all parameters vary simultaneously. Sensitivity analysis proves that soil-plant and feed-cow milk transfer factors for cesium, beef and grain consumption, and reduction factor for external irradiation have more influence on the lifetime doses, and transfer factor for cow milk for iodine and interception factor for grass also affect the short-term doses.