Epidemic Intelligence Models in Air Traffic Networks for Understanding the Dynamics in Disease Spread - A Case Study

Aim/Purpose: The understanding of disease spread dynamics in the context of air travel is crucial for effective disease detection and epidemic intelligence. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Hospitalized-Critical-Deaths (SEIR-HCD) model proposed in this research work is identified as a valuable tool for capturing the complex dynamics of disease transmission, healthcare demands, and mortality rates during epidemics. Background: The spread of viral diseases is a major problem for public health services all over the world. Understanding how diseases spread is important in order to take the right steps to stop them. In epidemiology, the SIS, SIR, and SEIR models have been used to mimic and study how diseases spread in groups of people. Methodology: This research focuses on the integration of air traffic network data into the SEIR-HCD model to enhance the understanding of disease spread in air travel settings. By incorporating air traffic data, the model considers the role of travel patterns and connectivity in disease dissemination, enabling the identification of high-risk routes, airports, and regions. Contribution: This research contributes to the field of epidemiology by enhancing our understanding of disease spread dynamics through the application of the SIS, SIR, and SEIR-HCD models. The findings provide insights into the factors influencing disease transmission, allowing for the development of effective strategies for disease control and prevention. Findings: The interplay between local outbreaks and global disease dissemination through air travel is empirically explored. The model can be further used for the evaluation of the effectiveness of surveillance and early detection measures at airports and transportation hubs. The proposed research contributes to proactive and evidence-based strategies for disease prevention and control, offering insights into the impact of air travel on disease transmission and supporting public health interventions in air traffic networks. Recommendations for Practitioners: Government intervention can be studied during difficult times which plays as a moderating variable that can enhance or hinder the efficacy of epidemic intelligence efforts within air traffic networks. Expert collaboration from various fields, including epidemiology, aviation, data science, and public health with an interdisciplinary approach can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the disease spread dynamics in air traffic networks. R