Understanding the Climate-Conflict-Migration Nexus: Immigration from Climate-Conflict Zones to Turkey

Regardless of the level of development, all countries are affected by the negative consequences of climate change, and economic, environmental, and social consequences emerge accordingly. Climate change is now being considered as a development and security problem. The main reason for this is that climate-related extreme weather events cause disasters, and that climate change is a threat multiplier for conflicts as it increases the struggle for scarce natural resources. This paper attempts to explain migration to Turkey from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh based on climate-induced internal displacement data using the Foresight Model. The study focuses on whether it is possible to predict migration from these countries by using the Foresight Model based on the comparison of the limited data with the IDMC data. Immigration was examined in three countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, with the exception of India, which was compatible with disaster-induced internal displacement IDMC data, by comparing DGMM data on illegal migrants apprehended with YÖK data on international students. It is concluded that a minimalist approach is more appropriate to explain climate induced migration to Turkey, and the micro and meso factors should also be considered based on the Foresight Model. IDMC, DGMM and YÖK data are compatible with each other, and there is a need for comprehensive data, including these data in climate-induced migration forecasts.