A new look at the simple epidemic process

Classical epidemic models have invariably proved to be mathematically intractable. By considering the distribution of the number of infectives in a simple epidemic process as a convolution of exponential waiting times, the solution to the classical model is obtained easily giving more insight into t...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of applied probability 1979-03, Vol.16 (1), p.198-202
Hauptverfasser: Billard, L., Lacayo, H., Langberg, N. A.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Classical epidemic models have invariably proved to be mathematically intractable. By considering the distribution of the number of infectives in a simple epidemic process as a convolution of exponential waiting times, the solution to the classical model is obtained easily giving more insight into the underlying structure. The idea can be extended to other simple epidemic models.
ISSN:0021-9002
1475-6072
DOI:10.2307/3213387