The Queen Elisabeth Musical Competition: How Fair is the Final Ranking?

The Queen Elisabeth musical competition is the best-known international competition for violin and piano organized in Belgium and is considered among the best and most demanding in the world. Each competition, organized in principle every 4 years, attracts about 40 violinists or 85 pianists, from many countries around the world. There is little doubt that winning this contest may have a significant effect on the future course of an artist. Therefore it may be relevant to study whether the final ranking is fair, or whether it may depend on some exogenous factors, related to the organization of the competition. In the paper, we examine whether one of these objectively observable factors, the order of appearance of a candidate, has an influence on his or her final ranking. The tests show that the final rank is (unfortunately) not independent of the day on which the candidate appears; there is a statistically significant effect, especially for piano contests. Those who appear first have a lower chance of being ranked among the top, whereas those who perform during the fifth day have a higher chance. We believe that the result is partly due to the way that the competition is organized, and we suggest some changes to avoid the bias.