A comparison of alternative forecasting techniques for livestock prices: a case study

Extract: Using two criteria, root mean square error (RMSE) and turning point predictive accuracy, the performance of five alternative econometric and time-series techniques for forecasting live cattle and live hog prices are compred. With respect to RMSE and cattle prices, the ARMA method outperforms the other forecasting techniques. With respect to hog prices, no technique clearly outperforms all other forecasting techniques. When turning point accuracy is evaluated, the models that show the lowest RMSEs do not necessarily predict turning points best