Impact Analysis on World Natural Heritage due to Global Warming - Estimation of Change of Recreational Value by using Contingent Behavior Method

In Japan, after contracting the World Heritage Convention of UNESCO in 1992, 17 sites have been inscribed on the World Heritage List by the end of 2013. Among them, the Shirakami Mountain Range is registered as a World Natural Heritage Site, by the primeval natural forest of beech which spread there and by public benefits associated with it. But the beech is on the verge of decline with the progress of global warming. If it is determined to have lost the outstanding universal value by monitoring after registration as the World Heritage Site, it will be deleted from the World Heritage List. In this study, it is assumed that deregistration of the Shirakami Mountain Range on the list is an impact on the World Natural Heritage Site by global warming, and we have analyzed impacts on tourist visits there. At this time, by using the contingent behavior method based on the travel cost method, we have estimated changes of the recreational value of the Shirakami Mountain Range.