A FORECASTING SYSTEM OF SIGHTSEEING TRAVEL DEMAND CONSIDERING AREA ATTRACTION AND EXCURSION BEHAVIOR

This study proposes a forecasting system of sightseeing travel demand to evaluate road network improvement project. In a model system of describing behavior of one-day sightseeing travel by auto, sightseeing excursion behavior and area attraction are considered carefully. The system consists of the first destination and next excursion choice models using the method of disaggregate choice analysis. These models are connected with the staying time choice model to describe sequential sightseeing area choices with progress of time. This system are estimated using questionnaire survey data on sightseeing excursion behavior in Nara prefecture. The practical use of the system is verified through the Monte Carlo micro simulation.