Mapping spatio-temporal changes in mangroves cover and projection in 2050 of their future state in Benin

Mangroves are precious ecosystems that provide vital socio-economic, environmental and cultural benefits to humanity. However, they are declining alarmingly due to human activities and natural hazards. Assessment of their spatio-temporal dynamics is essential to monitor these ecosystems and guide their management to ensure sustainability. We assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics of mangroves and predicted their future trends using remote sensing techniques and Markovian chain analysis. Landsat images TM/ETM+ (for 1988, 2001 and 2019) were obtained, processed, classified and analyzed using remote sensing techniques and GIS. The changes observed during these periods (1988–2001, 2001-2019 and 1988–2019) were used to predict future trends up to 2050, using Markovian chain analysis. The results showed that the mangrove area studied, which occupied 5205.24 ha in 1988, declined by 62.07% between 1988 and 2001 but increased by 18.84% from 2001 to 2019. This increase is attributed to strengthened mangrove restoration efforts. The mangroves had mainly been converted into grassland (52.35% in 1988-2001 and 7.31% in 2001-2019) and other vegetation types (17.57% in 1988-2001 and 27.05% in 2001-2019). Their decline was most severe in the municipalities of Abomey-Calavi and Ouidah, which therefore require greater conservation efforts. Our projection based on Markovian chain analysis suggests that these mangroves will continue to decline, but slowly. This study provides essential information to guide future mangrove conservation action in the study area.