Inferencia estadística en los textos escolares: una aproximación al pensamiento estadístico

[Objective] The main purpose of this study was to analyze the activities related to statistical inference present in secondary education textbooks in Chile, and their relationship to the development of statistical thinking. [Methodology] For the purposes of the study, a qualitative approach was used through a content analysis of the secondary education books disseminated free of charge by the Chilean Ministry of Education during the years 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022, which were selected using intentional non-probabilistic sampling. [Results] Among the main results obtained, it was found that most of the activities related to statistical inference in the textbooks analyzed had to do with procedures related to the calculation of confidence intervals, without addressing their interpretation in the context of the problem. In addition, it was observed that there were few activities related to informal inference. Likewise, the activities and questions presented in the textbooks do not refer to the formulation of hypotheses or conjectures about the sample data made to guide the formulation of conclusions related to statistical inference. [Conclusions] The findings indicate that despite the fact that confidence intervals are among the topics related to statistical inference in the textbooks, these textbooks are not focused on decision-making at the population level, but rather on description. [Objetivo] El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo principal analizar las actividades relacionadas con inferencia estadística, presentes en los textos escolares de enseñanza secundaria en Chile, y su relación con el desarrollo del pensamiento estadístico. [Metodología] Para efectos del estudio se hizo uso de un enfoque cualitativo mediante un análisis de contenido de los libros de enseñanza secundaria difundidos, gratuitamente, por el Ministerio de Educación chileno durante los años 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 y 2022, los cuales fueron seleccionados mediante un muestreo no probabilístico del tipo intencionado. [Resultados] Entre los principales resultados obtenidos, la mayoría de las actividades afines a inferencia estadística en los libros analizados, son del tipo procedimental, relacionadas con el cálculo de intervalos de confianza, sin abordar la interpretación de estos en el contexto de la situación problema. Además, se observa una escasa presencia de actividades relacionadas con inferencia informal. Asimismo, las actividades e interpelaciones explicitadas en los libros de