A model of tuberculosis epidemiology: estimation of parameters and analysis of factors influencing the dynamics of an epidemic process

A method for estimating the parameters of a model describing the main specifics of tuberculosis transmission in Russia is constructed in the paper. The method presented here allows one to take into account the difference of social and economic characteristics in the regions and the quality of work of antituberculous centers. The dynamics of the main epidemiological indices under possible changes of both socioeconomic characteristics and the quality of work of antituberculous centers is simulated. The results obtained show that an improvement in economic conditions may positively influence the epidemic situation diminishing the prevalence of disease. Regions with high epidemiological indices are the most sensitive to changes.