State estimation in flash flood prediction for small rivers

Rainfall–runoff models are used as an integral part of flood warning systems. Especially in small river catchment areas with a fast response to intense rain, an early enough triggering of warnings requires high quality weather forecasts as well as sufficiently accurate models. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model proposed by Lorent/Gevers serves as core routine of a pilot flash flood warning system for the Truse catchment in Thuringia (Germany). A moving horizon state estimator is used in order to enable this model for online application.