The role of air temperature in the dynamics of respiratory infection incidence in a megalopolis

The results of statistical analysis of data related to the morbidity of respiratory infections in Moscow in the period of 1959–1988 are described. A decrease in morbidity in the winter epidemic period and its growth in the summer interepidemic period are pointed out. The analysis shows that the regularities of the spread of respiratory infections do not depend on the season, but the parameters of the epidemic process essentially change at the beginning of the school year and in the period of Christmas holidays. The respiratory infection morbidity in the interepidemic period linearly grows with decreasing air temperature, but the beginning of an epidemic does not depend on air temperature. A mathematical model taking into account the dependence of the intensity of a respiratory infection on air temperature is constructed.