HOW THE BRAZILIAN CERRADO IS CHANGING OVERTIME IN NORTHERN MINAS GERAIS? SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

Deforestation is a complex problem worldwide caused mostly by the increase in farming activities. Despite the Brazilian Cerrado being the most biodiverse savanna in the world, this biome is threatened by high deforestation rates. The present study aimed to evaluate deforestation in in São Francisco municipality – Minas Gerais state in Brazil's southwestern region, analyzing changes in land cover between 2012 and 2020 focusing on forest, savanna, and grassland physiognomies, and predicting changes in the land cover for the year 2030. It was evaluated metrics of density and size, edge, shape, core area, and proximity. The forest and savanna fragments suffered a reduction in area (0.92% and 12.60%, respectively) and core area, and also increased its proximity. On the other hand, the grassland physiognomy increased its total area (12.72%), nuclear area, and distance from the other fragments. In general, the forest fragment and savanna fragments tended to be elongated and irregular. For 2030, a scenario is predicted with increasing grassland and decreasing forest and savanna. Those changes in the landscape can threaten the region's biodiversity, so public policy attention is needed to the conservation of the fragmented areas.