Estimating Demand for Services in the Nonprofit Tourism Industry

In the tourism industry sales forecasts are used in planning business strategy and operations. They are used to estimate traffic flows, occupancy rates, and visitor spending, as well as to plan for new operations and services, and budgets. Finally, sales forecasts are needed to determine the future strategy direction of the organization and capital expenditures that may result from strategy changes. This research uses historical sales data to develop a reliable sales forecasting model for a tourist attraction located in the Southeast region of the U.S. The model regression model is developed which incorporates two factors, one for time and another that accounts for marketing resources. The model was then validated by comparing estimated tourism with actual tourism data. It is also demonstrated that the use of statistical modeling can serve as a planning tool for policy makers of nonprofit organizations. Implications of this research for the nonprofit tourism industry are discussed.