Risk factors for induction of breast cancer by X-rays and their implications for breast screening

In order to discuss the balance of benefit and radiation risk in a breast screening programme, it is necessary to have numerical values for the probability of breast cancer induction by X-rays, stratified by age. Various sets of such values have been used hitherto, mainly in relation to breast screening in the UK, both within the NHS Screening Programme and more generally for younger age groups. Further sets have recently been reported. These different sets of values are described and discussed, together with the effects of using additive or relative risk models, and the effect of using a dose and dose rate modifying factor (DDREF). Possible new radiation risk factors for breast cancer induction by X-rays, drawn from these sets, are identified. These are used to calculate fresh values of cancer detection/induction ratios, as an index of benefit/risk, for screening age women and for younger women with and without a family history of breast cancer.