Statistical Nonsignificance in Empirical Economics

Statistical significance is often interpreted as providing greater information than nonsignificance. In this article we show, however, that rejection of a point null often carries very little information, while failure to reject may be highly informative. This is particularly true in empirical conte...

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Veröffentlicht in:The American economic review. Insights 2020-06, Vol.2 (2), p.193-208
1. Verfasser: Abadie, Alberto
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Statistical significance is often interpreted as providing greater information than nonsignificance. In this article we show, however, that rejection of a point null often carries very little information, while failure to reject may be highly informative. This is particularly true in empirical contexts that are common in economics, where data-sets are large and there are rarely reasons to put substantial prior probability on a point null. Our results challenge the usual practice of conferring point null rejections a higher level of scientific significance than non-rejections. Therefore, we advocate visible reporting and discussion of nonsignificant results. (JEL C12, C90)
ISSN:2640-205X
2640-2068
DOI:10.1257/aeri.20190252