Patients with AML Who Achieve Long Term Complete Remission Do Not Have a Normal Life Expectancy When Compared to the General Population. Analysis of 3,012 Patients Enrolled on 9 Consecutive ECOG-ACRIN Trials

Introduction Several studies reported that AML patients who remain in long-term remission after allogeneic transplant (allo-HCT) or autologous transplant (auto-HCT) have a shorter life expectancy, compared to the general population. However, little is known about the life expectancy of adult long-term survivors of AML who were treated with chemotherapy without HCT and, there have been no comparisons with survival among the general population. The current study reports on the life expectancy of AML patients who survived 3 years in complete remission (CR) after treatment without HCT, and compared this to the gender- and age-matched normal population. At 3 years in CR, the incidence of recurrence is exceedingly low (3%; Watts JM, Leuk Res 2014) minimizing the impact of relapse on the long-term survival. Methods Between 1984 and 2008, 3,012 patients, aged 15 years and older, with untreated AML entered 9 consecutive, phase II and III, ECOG-ACRIN trials (E3483, PC486, E3489, E1490, E3993, E4995, E3997, E3999, E1900). Patients in CR and relapse-free at 3 years are included in the analysis . Minimal cytogenetic information was available in the early protocols (E1490, E3483, PC486). A Kaplan-Meier plot was generated for the three groups, allo, auto and no HCT, censoring for patients alive at last contact. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional hazard regression models were generated, considering death as an event. For comparison of long-term outcomes, patients were grouped together by age and matched to a normative population mortality rate. Subjects were also grouped by gender and treatment allowing for separate analysis of these groups with the no HCT group as the main group of interest. The normative population comparator of expected deaths was derived using mortality rates from United State CDC life table data. The median year was derived by calculating the person-years for each calendar year that patients were followed. To calculate the expected deaths for each age group, person-years was calculated by tabulating the years lived in each age group for all subjects. Each year of follow-up for AML patient was counted as one person year, and the tabulated bin corresponded with their age at the time. Person-years was then multiplied by the matching mortality rate. Chi-square statistics were derived using expected and observed deaths and then summed for each gender and treatment. The final comparison was of mortality rates since diagnosis in the 3-year alive a