Baseline and on-Treatment Bone Marrow Microenvironments Predict Myeloma Patient Outcomes and Inform Potential Intervention Strategies

Introduction The multiple myeloma (MM) tumor microenvironment (TME) strongly influences patient outcomes as evidenced by the success of immunomodulatory therapies. To develop precision immunotherapeutic approaches, it is essential to identify and enumerate TME cell types and understand their dynamics. Methods We estimated the population of immune and other non-tumor cell types during the course of MM treatment at a single institution using gene expression of paired CD138-selected bone marrow aspirates and whole bone marrow (WBM) core biopsies from 867 samples of 436 newly diagnosed MM patients collected at 5 time points: pre-treatment (N=354), post-induction (N=245), post-transplant (N=83), post-consolidation (N=51), and post-maintenance (N=134). Expression profiles from the aspirates were used to infer the transcriptome contribution of immune and stromal cells in the WBM array data. Unsupervised clustering of these non-tumor gene expression profiles across all time points was performed using the R package ConsensusClusterPlus with Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to select the number of clusters. Individual cell types in these TMEs were estimated using the DCQ algorithm and a gene expression signature matrix based on the published LM22 leukocyte matrix (Newman et al., 2015) augmented with 5 bone marrow- and myeloma-specific cell types. Results Our deconvolution approach accurately estimated percent tumor cells in the paired samples compared to estimates from microscopy and flow cytometry (PCC = 0.63, RMSE = 9.99%). TME clusters built on gene expression data from all 867 samples resulted in 5 unsupervised clusters covering 91% of samples. While the fraction of patients in each cluster changed during treatment, no new TME clusters emerged as treatment progressed. These clusters were associated with progression free survival (PFS) (p-Val = 0.020) and overall survival (OS) (p-Val = 0.067) when measured in pre-transplant samples. The most striking outcomes were represented by Cluster 5 (N = 106) characterized by a low innate to adaptive cell ratio and shortened patient survival (Figure 1, 2). This cluster had worse outcomes than others (estimated mean PFS = 58 months compared to 71+ months for other clusters, p-Val = 0.002; estimate mean OS = 105 months compared with 113+ months for other clusters, p-Val = 0.040). Compared to other immune clusters, the adaptive-skewed TME of Cluster 5 is characterized by low granulocyte populations and high antigen-present