Does compact development promote a seismic-resistant city? Application of seismic-damage statistical models to Taichung, Taiwan

This study examines whether compact development promotes a seismic-resistant city. A statistical model is used to simulate seismic damages under four spatial structure scenarios for Taichung, Taiwan. The existing floor areas of various land uses are allowed to be reallocated for reshaping the spatial structure of the city. This provides an opportunity to find an urban structure that would best resist seismic impacts similar to what have occurred during the past 100 years. The results suggest a polycentric compact form for seismic mitigation. This form, derived from the vision of Taichung, would have less seismic damages by shifting floor areas from the city center to three proposed subcenters, far away from most seismic impacts. One weakness is the seismic impacts from the north. The results also reveal that a monocentric compact form would incur more damages because the downtown area is essentially seismic-vulnerable. This paper advocates the application of a stricter building code in the downtown area. The local government should also not render additional building bulk as an incentive for urban renewal.