Multicriteria Security System Performance Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic

Modern security problems focus on sensibly allocating resources to decrease the magnitude of potential hazards, decrease the chances of adversary success given an attempt, or minimize loss following a successful attack. The focus of this paper is on developing a simple, yet analytically sound tool that facilitates rapid assessments of security system non-performance in terms of probability of adversary success at the facility or asset level using concepts from fuzzy logic. Beginning with a short overview of how security system performance fits within an overall security risk analysis frame-work, this paper presents the basic concepts of fuzzy systems and applies them to develop a model that approximates the true relationship between defensive capabilities and probability of adversary success. A simple example demonstrating the proposed model to support decision making accompanies this discussion. This paper concludes with a strategy for implementation of the proposed model in an operational setting.