An Initial Investigation into the Cognitive Processes Underlying Mental Projection

The objective of this study is to gain insight into the cognitive mechanisms that enable a person to project how a system or environment will change over time. Two potential mechanisms for mental projection are examined: (1) mental simulation (performing a mental play by play) and (2) pattern matching (identifying critical features of the situation and matching those with previous experience). A study was performed in cooperation with the National Weather Service Warning Decision Training Branch in which 28 severe weather warning forecasters participated in an interval-based simulation. At three decision points in this simulation, participants were asked to assess the threat level for tornado, wind, hail, and flash flood and to delineate their rationale for each assessment. Results are presented that support the existence of pattern matching and mental simulation strategies, that suggest different strategies may be effective in different situations, and that indicate forecasters utilize both strategies.