Predicting Attrition and Performance in Navy and Marine Corps Air Traffic Control School

Attrition rates due to poor academic performance are particularly high for the Navy’s air traffic control training program. The school relies on scores from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) for its selection criteria which do not seem to be sufficient by themselves in predicting who will succeed in training. We hypothesized that including cognitive assessments designed to assess skills specific to air traffic control would improve the ability to predict training performance. The model results showed that cognitive abilities were related to training performance beyond ASVAB scores, however, they were more successful at classifying academic success (M = .92) than academic attrition (M = .23). Importantly, the results highlight the importance of additional screening materials that can be used to help reduce attrition and the cost of training