Predicting Indian Business Cycles: Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors

This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the Delhi School of Economics-Economic Cycle Research Institute (DSE-ECRI) Indian Leading Index for exports for predicting cyclical swings in Indian exports growth. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of India's 17 major trading partners. Leading indices of India's major trading partners were developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the real-time performance of the leading index of Indian exports has been creditable in the last seven years since its construction in 2001. In conjunction with the DSE-ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to monitor the domestic economy, the exports leading index forms a sound foundation for a pioneering effort to monitor Indian economic cycles.