Scenario-Based Management of Air Traffic Flow: Developing and Using Capacity Scenario Trees

Recent studies of the single-airport ground-holding problem use static or dynamic optimization to manage uncertainty about future airport capacities. Scenario trees of airport capacity profiles provide the basis for formulating multistage recourse problems. In this paper, methodologies are presented for generating scenario trees from empirical data, and the performance of scenario-based models is examined with the scenario trees. Most U.S. airports have capacity profiles that can be classified into some nominal scenarios, and for many airports, these scenarios can be naturally combined into scenario trees. The delay costs yielded from using dynamic optimization are consistently and considerably lower than from static optimization. The results illustrate the benefit of the wait-and-see strategy in a real-world setting and suggest the need for further research on implementing scenario-based dynamic strategies.