Migration across the urban hierarchy: Has China’s urbanisation transitioned from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage?

The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanisation transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanisation China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanisation and migrant selectivity, and analyses city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. The findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanisation by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanisation stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanisation processes.