Coupling rare earth element analyses and high-resolution topography along fault scarps to investigate past earthquakes; a case study from the Southern Apennines (Italy)

The systematic study of faults that have released strong earthquakes in the past is a challenge for seismic hazard assessment. In carbonate landscapes, the use of rare earth element (REE) concentrations on slickensides may aid the reconstruction of fault slip history. We applied this methodology to the Caggiano normal fault (Southern Apennines, Italy), cropping out southeast of the Irpinia 1980 CE earthquake fault (Mw 6.9), which was responsible for both the 1561 CE and partly the 1857 CE Basilicata earthquakes (Mw 6.7 and 7.1). We integrated the REE analysis approach with a high-resolution topographic analysis along 98 serial topographic profiles to measure vertical separations attributable to faulting since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The asymmetric scarp height profiles suggest fault-lateral propagation and along-strike variations in the fault evolution. Our results indicate the occurrence of 7 to 11 earthquakes with variable slip between ∼40 cm and ∼70 cm within post-LGM times. We estimated the magnitudes of the respective earthquakes, between 5.5 and 7.0, and most commonly between 6.3 and 6.5. The results suggest a recurrence time between 1.6 k.y. and 2.3 k.y. and a slip rate ranging between 0.6 mm/yr and 0.9 mm/yr. This approach may be useful for application to carbonate fault planes in similar tectonic contexts worldwide.